Friday, 7 December 2007

Businessweek is asking if recession time is here again

Businessweek is the publication I find most useful for telling me about stuff I need to know. This ranges from the weekly back page column written by the management king Jack Welch (and his wife Suzy), who invariably have wise words of management wisdom, through to profiles and incisive interviews with the IT giants such as Microsoft, Oracle, Sun and the like, through to the very exciting gizmos and gadgets from the latest hot sexy Silicon Valley start-ups.

Which is why when Businessweek starts talking about a recession, I take it seriously.

Well, it makes sense too. I have been in this game long enough to know that each recession usually starts at the end of one decade and runs into the next. So if it’s true, we are just starting this one a bit earlier than normal. My business partner (who has a degree in economics so is the expert...!) argues that it’s not so simple, however, history for me suggests otherwise.

So if a recession is really on its way slightly sooner than usual, then my view is that it might be less painful than the boom and bust of 99-2002 because the IT and telecoms industry tightened its belt so tight during the last downturn that I don’t think it had chance to really loosen it yet.

My other source is Radio 5 Live, who predicted the last recession before anyone else and is very busy doing the same thing again. As we all know, we can talk ourselves into downturns.

So watch out, tighten your belts accordingly, it could be upon us sooner than we think.

Sue G

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